Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: October Surprise

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Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: October Surprise

Although there are only two days left in October, there are still many people in the political world waiting for an “October Surprise” — some sort of game-changing event in the final moment before the general election that could fundamentally alter the race between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Four years ago, that “surprise” was a videotaped message from terrorist Osama bin-Laden; eight years ago it was the revelation that George W. Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol in the 1970s.

Data contained in the latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll suggest that even if a “major crisis” (read: October surprise) were to happen, it’s not clear it would change the underlying fundamentals of the contest.

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